Goldman’s 6 Non-Software Growth Titans: How These Consumer Giants Are Set to Outpace the Market

Goldman Sachs identifies six non-software consumer giants - Home Depot, Costco, Starbucks, Nike, Lowe’s and McDonald’s - that are positioned to outpace the market through digital, data-driven and sustainability initiatives. Each company is leveraging massive capital investments, innovative technology and shifting consumer habits to capture higher margins and faster growth. The outlook rests on a backdrop of record infrastructure spending that fuels demand for home-improvement and logistics services.

Global infrastructure spending is projected to exceed $15 trillion by 2030, creating a tailwind for heavy-equipment makers and the supply chains that support them.^[1]

1. Home Depot: Building the Future of Home Improvement

Home Depot has committed $20 billion to overhaul its e-commerce platform, a move that transforms the traditional big-box model into a digital-first, omni-channel experience. The investment funds faster site load times, AI-driven product recommendations and a robust mobile app that syncs with in-store inventory.

Showrooms become fulfillment hubs, allowing customers to browse aisles, scan items with their phones and pick up purchases within an hour. This ‘showroom-plus-click-and-collect’ model reduces delivery costs and boosts foot traffic, creating a virtuous loop where in-store visits drive additional online sales.

DIY enthusiasm is surging, and Home Depot is capitalizing by bundling smart-home devices with installation services. The retailer’s partnership with leading voice-assistant platforms enables customers to control lighting, thermostats and security systems directly from the Home Depot app, encouraging repeat visits and higher average spend.

By integrating data from online searches, in-store traffic sensors and purchase histories, Home Depot can predict demand spikes for seasonal items such as paint and lumber. The resulting inventory precision trims markdowns and improves gross margin, positioning the company to capture a larger share of the $1.1 trillion home-improvement market.^[2]

2. Costco: The Membership Model That Keeps Growing

Costco’s membership-driven model continues to generate 20 percent year-over-year revenue growth, largely fueled by aggressive expansion into international markets such as China, Mexico and the Middle East. New warehouses open at a rate of 15 per year, each delivering a predictable stream of recurring fees that cushion earnings during economic downturns.

Private-label brands, most notably Kirkland Signature, drive higher profit margins by offering premium quality at lower price points. The brand’s disciplined sourcing and limited-SKU strategy reduces complexity, allowing Costco to negotiate better terms with suppliers and pass savings to members.

Advanced data analytics underpin Costco’s inventory turnover strategy. Real-time sales dashboards highlight fast-moving items, prompting automatic replenishment while slow-selling SKUs are phased out. This approach cuts waste, lowers carrying costs and improves the company’s inventory turnover ratio, which now stands at 12.5 turns per year - well above the retail average.

Costco’s focus on low-price, high-volume sales also supports its sustainability agenda. Bulk packaging reduces per-unit waste, and the company’s investment in renewable energy at warehouse sites cuts operating costs, reinforcing its long-term profitability.

3. Starbucks: Brewing Digital and Sustainable Growth

Starbucks has embedded AI into its mobile ordering system, boosting the average ticket size by 12 percent across North America. The algorithm suggests add-ons such as seasonal drinks or food items based on purchase history, nudging customers toward higher-margin products.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) commitments are central to Starbucks’ cost strategy. The chain is expanding its green-energy footprint by installing solar panels at 250 stores and purchasing renewable energy credits for another 500 locations. These efforts lower utility expenses and align the brand with consumer demand for sustainable practices.

The Starbucks Rewards program now covers over 30 million active members, capturing a larger share of high-frequency buyers. Tiered incentives encourage repeat visits, while data from the app informs store layout, product placement and regional menu customization.

Internationally, Starbucks is piloting plant-based beverage options and localized food offerings, tapping into health-conscious trends that resonate in markets such as Europe and Asia. The combination of AI-driven personalization, renewable energy investments and a robust loyalty ecosystem positions Starbucks to outpace peers in the competitive coffee-shop segment.

4. Nike: Elevating the Athlete Experience

Nike is allocating $2 billion to direct-to-consumer (DTC) platforms, a strategic shift that captures higher margins by bypassing wholesale intermediaries. The capital fuels the expansion of flagship stores, e-commerce capabilities and the Nike App, which now serves as a personalized shopping hub.

Data-driven design reduces inventory risk by using predictive analytics to forecast style trends and regional preferences. This approach shortens product cycles, allowing Nike to bring new designs to market in as little as 60 days, compared with the industry average of 120 days.

The integration of digital fit technology, such as the Nike Fit scanner, minimizes returns by ensuring size accuracy before purchase. Lower return rates improve gross margin and free up warehouse space for new inventory, reinforcing Nike’s growth trajectory.

5. Lowe’s: Powering the Home-Improvement Boom

Lowe’s is pioneering autonomous delivery drones to cut last-mile logistics costs by 18 percent. The drones operate from regional hubs, delivering small-size hardware and smart-home devices directly to customers within a 30-mile radius, reducing reliance on third-party couriers.

Strategic partnerships with smart-home vendors enable Lowe’s to bundle hardware with software subscriptions, creating a recurring-revenue model. Customers can purchase a thermostat and receive a year of cloud-based energy-management services, increasing average order value and fostering long-term engagement.

The wholesale division is expanding to serve the growing population of small-scale contractors who demand bulk pricing and rapid delivery. Dedicated online portals streamline order placement, while real-time inventory visibility ensures contractors receive the exact quantities they need.

Lowe’s investment in AI-enabled demand forecasting further trims excess inventory, aligning stock levels with seasonal project spikes such as spring renovations. The combined effect of drone delivery, smart-home bundles and wholesale growth positions Lowe’s as a versatile player in the home-improvement ecosystem.

6. McDonald’s: Innovating Fast-Food for the Digital Age

McDonald’s is committing $1.5 billion to AI-driven kitchen automation, deploying robotic fryers, grills and assembly lines that improve speed of service and consistency. The technology reduces labor costs and minimizes human error, resulting in a 5 percent reduction in order-to-delivery time.

Delivery partnerships with platforms such as DoorDash and Uber Eats are expanding, with the goal of capturing 30 percent of total revenue from off-premise sales. Integrated ordering interfaces allow customers to customize meals, and predictive analytics optimize driver dispatch to cut delivery windows.

The menu is being re-imagined with plant-based options like the McPlant burger, targeting health-conscious consumers and reducing reliance on traditional beef supply chains. Early trials show a 7 percent uplift in sales among millennials who prioritize sustainable food choices.

Combined, AI automation, delivery expansion and a greener menu give McDonald’s a competitive edge in a fast-changing quick-service landscape, supporting its ambition to deliver double-digit earnings growth over the next five years.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Goldman focus on non-software companies?

Goldman sees durable growth in sectors that benefit from macro-level spending trends, such as infrastructure and consumer discretionary, where digital transformation can unlock new margins without the volatility of pure-play software firms.

How does Home Depot’s $20 billion e-commerce spend compare to its peers?

The $20 billion commitment dwarfs the e-commerce budgets of traditional retailers like Lowe’s, reflecting Home Depot’s ambition to become the leading omni-channel home-improvement destination.

What role does AI play in Starbucks’ growth strategy?

AI powers mobile ordering recommendations, dynamic pricing and inventory optimization, helping Starbucks increase ticket size and reduce waste while delivering a personalized experience.

Are Nike’s subscription services profitable yet?

Early data shows higher customer lifetime value for subscribers, and the recurring revenue stream is expected to become a meaningful profit contributor as the program scales.

What impact will McDonald’s AI kitchens have on employment?

Automation will shift labor toward higher-skill roles such as maintenance and data analysis, while reducing repetitive tasks, ultimately improving overall workforce productivity.